Analysis on Spurs vs. Warriors

I watched the videotape of Spurs vs. Warriors on 3/19. In general, it’s a great game to watch. Spurs shows playoff level defense and successfully froze Curry. On the other hand, warriors was playing with rational tactics, keeping the game pretty close. As a huge basketball fan, I would like to summarize some of my thoughts about the game.

• Although Spurs won the game, I don’t believe they can beat Golden State in a 7 game series. Why?
  • Bogut, Ezeli and Iguodala were all out of the game; it’s pretty obvious that the size caused tremendous trouble to warriors without their big men. You can constantly see Barnes and Green switched on Aldridge/Diaw but couldn’t stop them in the paint. The offense board from Spurs in the fourth quarter were killing G.S. Even the presence of  Iguodala could mitigate the trouble. (stat: spurs had 53 rebounds in total including 14 offense boards, whereas G.S. only grabbed 37 rebounds with 7 offense boards)
  • Curry was having a cold night, so was Klay. It seems to me that Curry didn’t expect the extra care from entire Spurs team on him, and without a comfortable pace, he tried a little too much to try to help the team. However, how often do you expect both of Splash brothers can’t find rims at the same time? Pretty low chance, right?
  • Even though the pace Spurs setup was not the one Warriors like, they still play in the correct way – team play, constantly ball movement and transit offense when possible; it’s noticeable that with such poor field goal percentage Warriors still committed 24 assists with only 10 turnovers. In contrast, Spurs had 17 assists but 17 turnovers as well.
• What did Spurs do well?
  • The defense strategy:
    • Always switch when guarding Curry, but no (little) double-teams: there were a couple of plays Spurs tried double-team him but failed and gave him opportunity to draw great pass to cutter;
    • Staying on the perimeter and paint area, leave the mid-range open: It has been more and more common in today’s NBA that teams protect rim and 3 pointers but let the opponents try the open mid/long distance jumper. The intention is clear, shot in paint area has higher successful rate and 3 pointer is a more efficient way of attack (My impression is that Speights got several opportunities during late 3rd and 4th quarter, but he wasn’t able to nail the shots: 2/6)
    • Stop the ball: When Warriors try to push the tempo or get fast breaks, give early foul to stop the play; the comparison between the foul chart is sharp for two teams
      • Spurs: Parker and Leonard both committed 4 fouls, while Ginobili and Mills both 3 (back court players)
      • G.S.: Barnes 5 and 3 for both of Green and McAdoo (front court, not enough size to stop the C/PF)
  • Slow down the pace:
    • What’s the most important thing in basketball game? — Pace! Try to play in your rhythm is critical, especially for shooters. As smart as Coach Pop wouldn’t ignore the preference of Warriors on fast pace game. So, here we go. Spurs tried every opportunities to direct the game to traditional half-court game and use the clock pretty wise. We see many times of Aldridge/Kawhi’s post play. Diaw is the X-factor of this game, with his vision, versatility and weight, he gave Barnes a tough night.
  • The match: Danny Green showed his great value on both end. His persistence brought back 2 blocks and out-of-rhythm for Curry the entire night; his impressive defense skill also relief Kawhi to be concentrate on Klay and protect the rim. He also made a couple of critical shots (a 3 and a layup at late of the game)
• What’s next?
  • There are still 2 games ahead between the top 2 teams in the entire league. I am pretty sure that Warriors will show a bounce back at home, not mentioning that their pursuit of historical 73 wins. I personally don’t respect Aldridge’s game that much. To me, he’s far away from a dominant big guy. For sure, he can nail down the mid-range jumper and he has above average footwork in current league. However, he’s not tough enough and to the end of the day he is a PF but not a C. With Bogut or Ezeli’s back, his stat will have a huge drop.
  • As we know more about Curry these a couple of seasons, his competitive nature is reviewed more to the public. We all know what happened when Bucks, Mavs and Trailblazers had their second game against Warriors this season. Also, as Jeff Van Gundy pointed out during the game, Curry should attack the rim more often, to make play and create fouls. It might be tricky for him to clear out his mind during the game, but Coach Kerr and his groups definitely will help Stephen set a better plan for the next match.
  • This also brings my concern, the sudden lift of defense intensity is a shrewd move  from Coach Pop, but wouldn’t he show his card too early? As one of his best apprentices I bet Steve Kerr can figure out a more sound plan for the next match, but I don’t think there are many other counter moves for Pop if this one didn’t work.

Several minor thoughts: Parker’s unstable status and the aging issue will be the Achilles heel for Spurs championship adventure this year. Anyone who watched 2007 and 2013 Spurs games could identify how much Parker’s performance has decayed. You know what? No matter how good Mills’s shooting is or Manu can lead a efficient bench, Parker is still the facilitator of the first lineup. I am worried about his match up with Chris Paul/Russel Westbrook/Curry/Lillard. Duncan only played 8 minutes for this game. Admittedly, he’s still a great defender and rebounder, but you can’t rely on always play 4 on 5 in offense unless you are playing DeAndre Jordan/Dwight Howard.

This game reminds me the season of 2005 when both Pistons and Spurs are playing hard on defense. It reminds me when O.K. each knocked down 25+ points. However, the era has changed. We have to admit that. It might work one or twice, with some luck shots (Danny Green’s layup) and home court advantage, but can they always keep it up? After all, G.S. just didn’t make any of the three 3pts in the last 1:30.